The Tech Job Market Is Signaling Something Big — And It's Not What You Think

I just read Lenny's Newsletter breakdown of the current product job market and had to share it — because what the data is showing isn't really a story about PM roles. It's a signal about where the entire business landscape is heading, and if you're a founder or operator paying attention, you should be reading it that way.

When capital investment jumps 29% year-over-year and AI PM roles nearly double in 12 months, that's not a hiring trend. That's a map of where the economy is placing its bets.

The Numbers That Matter

Let me give you the facts from Lenny's report, because they're worth sitting with:

• 6,000+ open PM roles globally — up 53.6% from 2023 lows, and up 11% just since the start of the year
• That's the highest PM headcount in over 2 years
• AI PM positions: 688 open roles — nearly a third of all global AI roles are concentrated in the Bay Area
• Layoffs are declining — 2025 is on track to have the fewest tech layoffs in 4 years
• Capital investment is up 29% year-over-year — and up 227% over the past 5 years
• Engineering roles are at their highest levels since late 2022

That last number — 227% capital growth over 5 years — is the one that keeps me anchored when I hear people talking about an AI "bubble." This isn't a brief spike. It's sustained, compounding investment in a specific direction.

What the Geography Is Telling Us

Lenny's data also breaks down where these roles are concentrating, and that's worth paying attention to:

Bay Area still dominates — 20% of PM roles, 17% of engineering roles. Nothing new there.

But what's interesting: Berlin and Austin have entered the top 10, while Boston and LA have dropped out. That's a meaningful shift in where serious tech buildout is happening outside of California. If you're thinking about where to locate, hire, or build community — those cities are worth watching.

Remote opportunities, meanwhile, are continuing to decline toward what's looking like a new baseline. The fully-remote-everything era that peaked in 2021-2022 is settling into something more modest. Hybrid and in-person roles are winning.

The AI PM Signal Is the One I Keep Coming Back To

688 open AI PM roles. That number jumped out to me because it's not just "tech companies are hiring again." It's specifically AI product management — people whose entire job is figuring out how to build, ship, and position AI-native products.

Companies don't hire for roles they don't have clear use cases for. The fact that AI PM is one of the fastest-growing categories tells you something about where product development dollars are actually going — toward AI-native features, AI-native workflows, and products built from the ground up around AI capabilities.

That's a signal for every founder building right now.

What This Means If You're Not in Tech

Here's why I think this matters beyond the PM/engineering world:

Capital is flowing toward AI. That's not abstract — it means more tools, more infrastructure, more distribution channels are being built. The platforms you're using in your business today will look very different in 18 months. The ones that aren't integrating AI are going to get disrupted by the ones that are.

Hiring is picking back up. For founders who've been holding off on building teams, the talent pool is improving and layoffs are declining. That changes the negotiation dynamic.

The Bay Area AI concentration is real. If you're building AI-forward products and you're not in that ecosystem, you're not adjacent to 1/3 of the global AI workforce. That's worth factoring into how you network, where you attend events, and who you build relationships with.

And for anyone teaching business skills — which is part of what I do at Monster Marketing Academy — the message is clear: the skills that are most in demand right now are the skills that sit at the intersection of AI and business strategy. Not pure coding. Not pure marketing. The intersection.

The Bottom Line

Lenny's PM job market data is useful if you're hiring a product manager. But the more interesting read is as a macro indicator. Capital is up 227% over 5 years. AI roles are surging. Layoffs are at 4-year lows. These aren't coincidences — they're a coordinated bet that AI-first companies are going to define the next decade.

If you're building something right now, this data is your tailwind. Build accordingly.