This NFL Draft Class Is Breaking All the Rules — And That's a Good Thing
A running back at pick 3, a linebacker at 4 — Peter Schrager's final 2026 NFL mock draft throws positional value out the window, and teams are here for it.
The 2026 NFL Draft is this week, and if you follow this stuff at all, you know that the conventional wisdom about which positions go early is basically getting thrown out the window.
Peter Schrager dropped his final first-round mock for ESPN and it's worth breaking down — because the story it tells about this class is genuinely interesting.
One GM told Schrager to "throw positional value out the window" for this draft. And looking at the top picks, you can see why.
The Top 5 (And Why It's Unusual)
Schrager's first five picks:
- Raiders — QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
- Jets — Edge David Bailey (Texas Tech)
- Cardinals — RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
- Titans — LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
- Giants — Edge Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
A running back at 3. A linebacker at 4. These are positions that have traditionally been avoided in the top 5 because of how teams have historically valued quarterbacks, edge rushers, and corners early. But this class doesn't have the premium depth at those spots that teams need to follow the script.
Love going third overall would make him one of the highest drafted running backs in years — a position that's been systematically devalued as teams increasingly use committee approaches and younger contract players instead of paying premium running backs premium money.
Styles at 4 is equally eyebrow-raising. Off-ball linebackers almost never go that high. But if you watch the tape, you understand why the Titans can't pass on him.
Four Trades Projected
Schrager also projects four trades in the first round, including a Kansas City/Dallas swap and a multi-team deal involving Detroit, LA, and Atlanta. That's unusual volume for round one trades, but it fits the chaos narrative — when teams aren't sure which players will fall and which ones will fly up boards, they move around to get their guy.
The round closes, in his projection, with Arizona taking Alabama QB Ty Simpson at pick 32 — meaning QBs bookend the first round, even if the middle is full of surprises.
What This Draft Tells You
The meta-narrative here is that teams that stick rigidly to positional value are going to let great players fall to teams willing to break from tradition. This class rewards conviction. The teams that have done the film work and believe in their grades on Love or Styles will be rewarded. The teams still waiting for a "value pick" at a premium position may find themselves taking a lesser player just because of convention.
The draft is Thursday through Saturday. Watch to see how many of Schrager's calls land — and whether the teams that deviate from the script get rewarded or burned.