2026 NFL Mock Draft: The Only Pick Everyone Agrees On — And 31 Questions
Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders is the only certainty in tonight's draft. After that, it's chaos — including a projected trade that resets the entire back half of Round 1.
Tonight's the night. The 2026 NFL Draft kicks off at 8 p.m. ET — and if you want to know what the analysts expect, ESPN's Field Yates just dropped his final mock with Mel Kiper's last-minute intel.
Here's the breakdown.
Pick #1: Fernando Mendoza to the Las Vegas Raiders
This is the one pick everyone agrees on. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is going first overall to Las Vegas, making him one of a rare group — joining Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, and Baker Mayfield as Heisman winners taken first overall since 1967.
The Raiders are rebuilding, Mendoza is the best prospect in the class, and this has been locked in for months. The fun starts at pick #2.
Picks #2 and #3: Edge Rusher and Running Back
The Jets take Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey at #2. Bailey led the entire FBS with 14.5 sacks in 2025 and reportedly has the best first step in this class. After years of quarterback decisions, New York is addressing the pass rush.
At #3, the Arizona Cardinals take Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love. Love recorded the best FBS mark since 2024 with 40 scrimmage touchdowns over the last two seasons. Arizona hasn't had a dynamic backfield presence in years.
The Trade That Changes Everything
Here's where Yates' mock gets interesting. He projects Miami trading its first-round pick to Arizona (via Denver) in exchange for picks 34 and 65. What does Arizona do with the extra pick? They grab Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson at #30 — giving them both a franchise running back and a developmental quarterback in the same draft.
If this trade happens, it reshuffles the entire back half of the first round and gives the Cardinals a potentially dynamic offensive foundation going forward.
The Sleepers Worth Watching
Kiper's intel flags a couple of names to keep an eye on:
- Arizona safety Treydan Stukes as a potential late Round 1 surprise if teams value his coverage versatility
- Louisville WR Chris Bell — pre-injury grades had him as a potential first-rounder, but he's recovering from an ACL and is projected Round 2-3
The Bottom Line
Draft night is always part scouting report, part theater. Yates and Kiper are projecting the Raiders go QB #1, and after that it's genuinely open. The Dolphins trade scenario is the one to watch — if Miami moves out of the first round, it signals they're accelerating a rebuild with future capital rather than swinging big tonight.
Draft coverage starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC.