Frederik Andersen Is the Conn Smythe Frontrunner — And That's Wild.
8-0, a .950 save percentage, and a Hurricanes goalie who just rewrote his playoff narrative. Plus Marner and MacKinnon on his heels.
Conn Smythe rankings always tell two stories: the player who is winning, and the player who is narratively winning. This year, those happen to be the same guy.
Frederik Andersen, Carolina Hurricanes goaltender, is the Conn Smythe frontrunner. Read that sentence twice. The man who carried a "playoff struggles" tag through most of his career is currently 8-0 with a .950 save percentage and a 1.12 goals-against average through two rounds.
11.2 goals saved above expected through eight games. That's not "playing well." That's "single-handedly bending the series outcomes."
The Top 3
1. Frederik Andersen — G, Carolina Hurricanes
- 8-0 through two rounds
- .950 save percentage
- 1.12 goals-against average
- 11.2 goals saved above expected
- A redemption arc 10 years in the making
2. Mitch Marner — RW, Vegas Golden Knights
- Co-leader in voting, basically tied with Andersen
- Leading playoff scorer for Vegas through two rounds
- Four short-handed points entering the conference finals
- Note the narrative: Toronto playoff frustration → Vegas postseason hero
3. Nathan MacKinnon — C, Colorado Avalanche
- Shortest betting odds at DraftKings (+180)
- 13 points, 7 goals through 9 games
- Game-tying goal with 23 seconds left in Game 5 of round one
- The "best player on the ice" tax keeps him in contention
Why the Goalie Argument Is Different This Year
The Conn Smythe usually goes to a forward. The math is simple — forwards score, scoring decides games, scoring leads stay legible to voters. Goalies have to be transcendent to win it.
Andersen is currently transcendent.
A .950 in the modern NHL is a number that doesn't really exist over a sample this long. Carolina has handed him an offense that's gotten just enough, and he's done the rest. If the Hurricanes lift the Cup, voters will have no other story to tell. The only thing that can take this from him is the Hurricanes losing — which, currently, seems to be a thing other teams cannot make happen.
The Dark Horses Worth Watching
The rankings also mention Logan Stankoven, Jakub Dobes, and Taylor Hall as supporting names. Stankoven's been an under-the-radar two-way producer for Carolina. Dobes is the rookie goaltender who's been pulling his weight for Montreal. Hall is one of the great "wait, that Taylor Hall?" stories of the bracket.
Three more rounds of hockey will sort it.
The Bottom Line
Frederik Andersen is making the case to be the goalie that finally wins this trophy and gets the playoff narrative monkey off his back at the same time. If you're betting, MacKinnon at +180 still has the team most likely to make a deep run if Carolina ever stumbles. But the way the brackets currently sit, the Conn Smythe is Andersen's to lose — and right now, the Hurricanes don't lose.