The Only QB Worth a Top Pick in 2026
Fernando Mendoza stands alone in a weak QB class — and his rookie cards could be the only ones worth chasing.
If you're a sports card collector eyeing the 2026 NFL Draft, there's really only one quarterback you need to care about.
Fernando Mendoza is the only QB in this class with elite upside — and a bust probability under 31%.
The Mendoza Gap Is Real
ESPN's QBASE 2.0 model — the same system that correctly flagged Joe Burrow's ceiling before the 2020 draft — just dropped its projections for this year's class. The numbers are brutal for everyone not named Mendoza.
The Indiana Heisman winner projects to a 0.56 TDYAR/A (a key efficiency metric), with only a 30.8% bust probability. His comp? Joe Burrow. That's the kind of projection that makes rookie card investors pay attention.
Everyone Else Is a Dart Throw
Here's where it gets ugly:
- Ty Simpson (Alabama): 73.6% bust probability. He's a true freshman starter with Trubisky/Trey Lance comps. First-round talent, sixth-round certainty.
- Garrett Nussmeier: Over 92% bust probability. His minus-2.2 career rushing yards per attempt puts him in Brandon Weeden territory. That's not a comp you want on your card portfolio.
- Drew Allar: Also 92%+ bust risk, though his 4.8 rushing yards per attempt gives him the highest ceiling among Day 2 guys.
The Collector's Play
This is one of those years where the smart money concentrates. When you have a class this top-heavy, Mendoza's rookie cards — especially numbered parallels and autos from products like Prizm and National Treasures — could see a serious premium.
But here's the contrarian angle: the 2027 class has Dante Moore and Arch Manning coming back to school. Patient collectors might want to keep powder dry.
What This Means for Card Values
Weak draft classes actually create scarcity of premium rookie cards. When there's only one elite prospect, demand concentrates on that single player's cards. We saw this with Trevor Lawrence's class — his Prizm rookie was the only one that held long-term value.
Mendoza could follow the same pattern.
The Bottom Line
Don't spread your money across five QBs hoping one hits. The data says Mendoza is the only bet worth making — and if he lands with a team that has weapons around him, his card market is going to move fast on draft night.