Sabres vs. Canadiens Game 7: Buffalo's First Real Shot in 18 Years
Goalie change, X-factors, expert picks — here's everything that matters for Sabres-Canadiens Game 7, with Buffalo trying to end its longest series-win drought.
Buffalo hasn't been in an Eastern Conference Final since 2007. Eighteen years. The Sabres are one win away from ending the longest series drought in their division, and they get to play Game 7 at home against the Canadiens.
Three of four ESPN analysts are picking the Sabres. The series flipped on a goalie change. Buckle up.
The goalie story is the whole story
This series turned in Game 6 when Buffalo swapped Alex Lyon for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen — and Luukkonen delivered a shutout. That kind of in-series goalie change is rare, and when it works, it usually carries through to Game 7.
If Luukkonen plays the way he did Saturday, Buffalo is hard to bet against. If Montreal cracks him early, this turns into a track meet and the Habs have the speed to win it.
Suzuki's split is wild
Here's a stat that should worry Montreal: Nick Suzuki has 1 goal and 2 assists across six losses in this postseason — and 7 points in their wins. That's not bad luck. That's a star going completely cold in elimination games.
He's their captain. He's their best player. He needs to be the difference in Game 7 or the Canadiens are going home.
Alex Tuch is the other side of that coin
The Sabres have their own slumping star — Alex Tuch has gone six games without a point. When your best winger goes quiet, your power play stalls and your top line gets stuck.
The fix? Get him a goal early. Cheap one, breakaway, deflection — doesn't matter. Once Tuch sees the puck go in, his game opens up.
Dahlin is the leader Buffalo needs
Rasmus Dahlin has been the emotional spine of this team. He's dealt with personal stuff this season most fans don't even know about. He's still the guy on the ice who can tilt the rink.
The key for him in Game 7? Stay out of the penalty box. Buffalo can't kill penalties with their best defenseman in the box. If he plays disciplined, he's a +3 player. If he's chasing, Montreal will eat them on the power play.
What the experts are saying
| Analyst | Pick | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst 1 | Sabres | 5-3 |
| Analyst 2 | Sabres | 6-4 |
| Analyst 3 | Sabres | 6-3 |
| Analyst 4 | Canadiens (OT) | 5-4 |
Three of four ESPN voters picked Buffalo. The one who picked Montreal called for overtime, which tells you nobody thinks this is going to be a runaway. Tight, fast, lots of chances both ways.
What I'd watch
- First 10 minutes — if Buffalo scores first, the building explodes and the Habs have to chase
- Special teams — power play matchups will decide this
- Goalie body language — Luukkonen has to look comfortable. If he's twitching on shots from the point, that's a tell
- Montreal's third period — they've won close games on the road by getting late goals. Buffalo can't lose the lead in the final 10
The Bottom Line
This is one of those Game 7s that lives forever in one of the two cities. Buffalo hasn't been to the conference finals since 2007 and the building is going to be unhinged. Montreal has the road resilience and a star who can finally show up when it counts. Take the Sabres, but don't be shocked if it goes to overtime.